2026 Southwest Monsoon Expected to be Below Normal
The Ministry of Earth Sciences has projected that the 2026 southwest monsoon season in India (June to September) is likely to experience below-normal rainfall, ranging between 90-95% of the Long Period Average (LPA). This forecast is influenced by transitioning La Niña-like conditions towards ENSO-neutral conditions and a possible development of El Niño during the monsoon season. The sea surface temperature conditions in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, coupled with snow cover extent in the Northern Hemisphere, play significant roles in shaping this forecast.
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